With the NFL Divisional Round less than 24 hours away, it’s time to predict who will move on, and who can begin booking their vacation rentals. It’s time for greatness to step up, or the unwillingness to be great to be on display. Who will win? These are my picks.
AFC:
Texans @ Chiefs:
It wasn’t that long ago that the Chiefs beat the Texans 27-19 in Week 16. A big factor in that game for Kansas City, and late in the season as a whole, was rookie Xavier Worthy. Worthy had seven catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs’ path to winning that game wasn’t complicated: They ran the ball effectively, Patrick Mahomes had an efficient day, Worthy was highlighted and the defense played well, including two interceptions of Texans QB C.J. Stroud. The Texans need to play the best they’ve ever played if they want to knock off the defending champs and with Joe Mixon questionable after suffering an ankle injury in practice, we can’t be 100% sure that their best is even good enough.
Prediction: Chiefs 31-17
Ravens @ Bills
The regular-season matchup was a long time ago and it seems unlikely that it will mirror what we see on Sunday night, it’s hard to ignore that the Ravens absolutely dominated the Bills. They outgained Buffalo 427 to 236. It was the only time the Bills lost by more than one score all season, and they lost it by 25. It’s one of only three times since Allen’s rookie season of 2018 that the Bills have lost by 20 or more. We also can’t forget that the heaviest Bills linebacker, weighs 20lbs less than star running back Derrick Henry. Will the Bills be able to stop the dominant Ravens run offense, an offense that had the second most yards per attempt ever (only behind the greatest show on turf rams)? Josh Allen can’t be anything but perfect, as turnovers against this deadly Ravens team could lose you the ball for 10 minutes of gametime and put you away. However, can the Bills exploit Brandon Stephens in coverage? Can they take advantage of their added reinforcements since the regular season in Amari Cooper to help stretch the Ravens defense and open up James Cook? This is an interesting matchup that could see both teams win 50/100 games apiece. It’ll all come down to who wants it more in the -3 degree weather.
Prediction: Ravens 21-17
NFC:
Lions vs. Commanders
The Commanders have been one of the best stories in the NFL this season, going from four wins to 12 wins in just one calendar year. But the roster is still a step below the Lions in terms of talent on both sides of the ball. Washington exceeded odds and got to the dance immediately, while the Lions slowly built to the point of being one of the best, if not THE best, NFL teams over three seasons.
Daniels will cause issues for an aggressive Detroit linebacker group that has struggled to contain running quarterbacks. But the Lions will sell out to stop running back Brian Robinson and the run, and the rookie quarterback will have to make some big-time throws while 65,000 scream at him from the stands. On the other side, the Lions’ offense should have no issues finding a weakness in a defense that ranked 18th in points allowed and 30th in running defense. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, who is expected to return from a knee injury after missing the previous three games, will have big days to lead the Lions to the NFC championship game. Rookie Jayden Daniels will fall just short of a miraculous run, but fill Commanders fans with hope as they head into the future as they put fear into the hearts of Lions fans all game long.
Prediction: Lions 35-28
Eagles vs. Rams
The first time the Rams and Eagles played, Saquon Barkley had one of the best rushing games ever. Barkley had 255 yards on the ground, the ninth-most in NFL history. That game might have been a wake-up call for the Rams’ defense. Since then they’ve allowed a reasonable 104.1 rushing yards per game. The Eagles want to control the game with Barkley and their offensive line. The Rams can’t let the Eagles run wild again. If they contain Philadelphia’s ground game, they might have a shot at an upset. In 12 games, Sean McVay has never allowed 100+ rushing yards to a single player in a playoff game. If the magic number ticks up to 13, the Rams will have a real shot at winning as Jalen Hurts has never won a playoff game on his arm (0-3 with 200+ passing yards in the playoffs).
Prediction: Rams 24-17
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